THERE IS NOW A 50-50 CHANCE THE GLOBE WILL EXCEED 1.5C BY 2026

 According to a new report, between now and 2026, it is almost certain that we will see a new warmest year on record, and compared to the last five years, the chances of global temperatures temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement have risen five-fold.

This week, the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office released their latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update — a yearly report that examines the near-term climate forecast for the globe, looking ahead for the next five years.

The report goes on to note, from 2022-2026, yearly global average temperatures are predicted to be between 1.1 ° C and 1.7 ° C. Based on that, it is almost certain (93 per cent chance) that the entire five-year period will be warmer than the previous five years (2017-2021). There is also a 93 per cent chance that at least one year in that period will replace 2016 as the warmest year on record.

50 50 chance that the annual temperature(WMO)

In addition, the forecast includes a nearly 50:50 chance that the annual global average temperature anomaly will exceed 1.5 C during at least one year before 2026.

"This study shows - with a high level of scientific skill - that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change," Professor Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, stated in a press release on Monday.  

"The 1.5 ° C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet," Taalas added.

A 48 per cent chance is not very high. However, during the past five years (2017-2021) there was only a 10 per cent chance of seeing global temperatures rise that high. So, the probability of temporarily exceeding this goal of the Paris Agreement has now increased nearly five-fold.


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